Static dashboard specification

Release status and language

The checked-in site is a development preview built from suppressed aggregates derived from the private, page-sampled 10,000-vehicle development cohort. Every value is a sample result, not a population estimate. The site must not present statewide prevalence, county rankings, causal comparisons, or individual predictions.

Use Utah Vehicle Health as the project name and next-episode first-attempt non-pass for the modeled outcome. Non-pass combines fail, reject, and abort. The dashboard is not a diagnosis, certification, safety assessment, roadworthiness assessment, or guarantee.

Implemented four-view prototype

Overview

Visibly persistent development-preview warning
Rounded published support and sample pass/non-pass rates
Sample first-attempt non-pass trend for approved, pre-2025 periods
County feed-coverage map, with unavailable counties shown as unavailable rather than zero
Sample non-pass pattern by coarsened vehicle-age band
Plain-language target and limitations callout

County values provide sample/feed context only. They must not be sorted, headlined, or described as population county performance.

Sample cohorts

Search and compare only supported, suppression-cleared make/model cohorts
Show observed sample non-pass rates and rounded support
Default sorting by support rather than risk
Disable filters or adjusted views that the aggregate bundle cannot support
Explain that omitted cohorts may be suppressed or unavailable

These are descriptive development-sample cohorts, not reliability ratings, causal make/model effects, or recommendations.

Model & benchmark

Identify calibrated logistic regression as the sole final prototype model.
Identify calibrated histogram gradient boosting as benchmark-only.
Show only pre-2025, 2024 calibration-fit diagnostics from the private sample.
Explain that those same-partition values are calibration checks, not independent final-performance or population estimates.
Keep the opened 2025 holdout comparison in the private report/presentation, not in the browser bundle.
State plainly that the finished prototype has no vehicle-level prediction service, personal input form, or row-level output.

Data & methods

First-attempt returning-vehicle episode and binary-target definitions
Point-in-time feature and leakage controls
Coverage timeline by source era
Chronological development-sample split and one-time 2025-gate disclosure
Evidence-governance summary for the logistic final model and tree benchmark
Known sampling, coverage, label, validation, and interpretation limits
Private-to-public publication flow

The boosted tree appears only in benchmark context, never as a second final model. The dashboard never requests a VIN, plate, ZIP, exact address, station, technician, free text, or current-test diagnostic.

Public data contract

Asset	Allowed content
`data_manifest.json`	Release ID, model versions, scope flags, definitions, and suppression settings
`overview_period_county.json`	Suppressed quarter x covered-feed county sample aggregates
`cohort_scorecard.json`	Suppressed make/model sample aggregates with rounded support
`age_risk_curve.json`	Suppressed sample rates by coarsened vehicle-age band
`filter_catalog.json`	Publishable categories and supported periods
`model_diagnostics.json`	Train/tune/calibration development metrics only; no 2025 metrics
`coverage_quality.json`	Source-era availability by year
`sha256_manifest.json`	Checksums for the approved bundle

Every JSON asset must declare development_preview=true and population_estimate_allowed=false. The public manifest must declare locked_test_metrics_published=false. The browser validates the complete bundle and shows no estimates if any required asset fails its contract.

The browser bundle must never contain raw analytical rows, prediction lookup rows, hidden unsuppressed chart layers, or values recoverable only through the developer console.

Suppression and privacy controls

Require at least 100 eligible episodes and 100 distinct private vehicles per published cell.
Require at least 10 observations and 10 distinct vehicles in both binary outcome classes.
Apply complementary suppression when a visible total could reveal a hidden cell.
Combine rare categories, coarsen age/year fields, and round support.
Recheck thresholds for the exact grain of every released asset.
Omit suppressed rows entirely; do not send them to the browser.
Publish no VIN, plate, ZIP, exact address, station, technician identifier, private token, raw JSON, credential, operational record, free text, or row-level prediction.
Make no browser or hosted-service connection to countydata.

Accessibility and visual behavior

Use semantic headings, landmarks, labels, status messages, and keyboard- reachable navigation.
Provide text alternatives or accessible labels for charts.
Do not rely on color alone.
Use a restrained Utah/desert palette and direct probability/rate encodings; avoid gauges and decorative risk scores.
Preserve the warning banner and fail-closed unavailable state on desktop and mobile layouts.

Deployment boundary

Bolt receives a separate dashboard-only project whose root is the contents of dashboard/. Do not import or upload the full private-pipeline repository and do not rely on a configurable subdirectory working root. The deployable project contains no .env, private data/, model artifacts, SQL, pipeline scripts, or repository history outside the dashboard directory.

See bolt_deployment.md for the reviewed handoff and post-publication checks.

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