386 lines
22 KiB
HTML
386 lines
22 KiB
HTML
<!doctype html>
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<html lang="en">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
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<meta name="description" content="Sample-based research on the first-attempt non-pass outcome of a returning vehicle's next emissions inspection.">
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<meta name="referrer" content="no-referrer">
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<meta http-equiv="Content-Security-Policy" content="default-src 'self'; script-src 'self'; style-src 'self' 'unsafe-inline'; img-src 'self' data:; connect-src 'self'; font-src 'self'; object-src 'none'; base-uri 'none'; form-action 'none'">
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<title>Overview · Utah Vehicle Health</title>
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="./styles.css">
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<script type="module" src="./js/app.js"></script>
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</head>
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<body>
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<a class="skip-link" href="#main-content">Skip to dashboard content</a>
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<div id="preview-banner" class="preview-banner" role="status" hidden>
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<span class="preview-banner__icon" aria-hidden="true">◆</span>
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<div>
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<strong id="preview-title">Development preview</strong>
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<span id="preview-copy">Private 10,000-vehicle development sample · suppressed aggregates only · not population estimates.</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<header class="site-header">
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<div class="site-header__inner">
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<a class="brand" href="#overview" aria-label="Utah Vehicle Health overview">
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<svg class="brand__mark" viewBox="0 0 56 56" aria-hidden="true">
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<path d="M9 43 23 17l7 12 6-9 12 23H9Z" fill="currentColor"></path>
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<path d="m18 43 9-16 6 10 4-6 6 12H18Z" fill="var(--sand-100)"></path>
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</svg>
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<span>
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<span class="brand__name">Utah Vehicle Health</span>
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<span class="brand__tagline">Returning vehicles · next first attempt</span>
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</span>
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</a>
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<div class="header-status" id="header-status" aria-live="polite">
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<span class="status-dot" aria-hidden="true"></span>
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<span>Loading approved aggregates…</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<nav class="primary-nav" aria-label="Dashboard views">
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<div class="primary-nav__inner">
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<a href="#overview" data-route="overview" aria-current="page">Overview</a>
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<a href="#cohorts" data-route="cohorts">Sample cohorts</a>
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<a href="#model" data-route="model">Model & benchmark</a>
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<a href="#methods" data-route="methods">Data & methods</a>
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</div>
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</nav>
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</header>
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<main id="main-content" tabindex="-1">
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<section class="view" id="view-overview" data-view="overview" aria-labelledby="overview-heading">
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<div class="page-shell">
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<header class="page-heading page-heading--split">
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<div>
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<p class="eyebrow">Private 10,000-vehicle development sample</p>
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<h1 id="overview-heading">The next inspection, in sample context</h1>
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<p class="lede">The research question is intentionally narrow: predict whether a returning vehicle's next inspection episode has a first-attempt non-pass. Non-pass combines fail, reject, and abort.</p>
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</div>
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<div class="data-stamp" aria-label="Dataset status">
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<span>Data through</span>
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<strong id="data-cutoff">Unavailable</strong>
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<small id="model-version">Waiting for manifest</small>
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</div>
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</header>
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<aside class="scope-strip" aria-label="Result scope">
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<strong>Sample-based only</strong>
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<span>Every value on this page describes the private development sample and covered feeds—not Utah's vehicle population.</span>
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</aside>
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<div class="unavailable-state" data-unavailable hidden role="status">
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<div class="unavailable-state__icon" aria-hidden="true">!</div>
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<div>
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<h2>Dashboard data is unavailable</h2>
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<p data-unavailable-message>The approved aggregate files could not be validated. No estimates are being shown.</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<section class="kpi-grid" aria-label="Overview statistics" data-requires-data>
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<article class="kpi-card">
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<span class="kpi-card__label">Published episode support</span>
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<strong id="kpi-eligible">—</strong>
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<small>Rounded total; sampled vehicles may contribute multiple eligible episodes</small>
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</article>
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<article class="kpi-card kpi-card--pass">
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<span class="kpi-card__label">Observed sample pass rate</span>
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<strong id="kpi-pass">—</strong>
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<small>Recognized first-attempt outcomes</small>
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</article>
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<article class="kpi-card kpi-card--nonpass">
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<span class="kpi-card__label">Observed sample non-pass rate</span>
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<strong id="kpi-nonpass">—</strong>
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<small>Fail + reject + abort</small>
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</article>
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<article class="kpi-card">
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<span class="kpi-card__label">Covered county feeds</span>
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<strong id="kpi-counties">—</strong>
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<small>Not statewide coverage</small>
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</article>
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</section>
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<div class="dashboard-grid dashboard-grid--wide" data-requires-data>
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<article class="panel panel--wide">
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<header class="panel__header">
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<div>
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<p class="eyebrow">Sample association over time</p>
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<h2>Observed first-attempt non-pass trend</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-legend" aria-label="Outcome legend">
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<span><i class="legend-swatch legend-swatch--fail"></i>Non-pass (fail + reject + abort)</span>
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</div>
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</header>
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<div id="outcome-trend-chart" class="chart chart--large" role="img" aria-label="Quarterly inspection outcome rates"></div>
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<p class="chart-note" id="outcome-trend-note">Partial periods and source changes are called out when present.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="panel">
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<header class="panel__header">
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<div>
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<p class="eyebrow">Feed availability</p>
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<h2>County coverage</h2>
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</div>
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</header>
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<div id="utah-coverage-map" class="utah-map" role="img" aria-label="Utah county-feed coverage"></div>
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<div id="county-coverage-list" class="county-list" aria-label="County availability list"></div>
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<p class="chart-note">Availability only—this is not a county outcome ranking. Teal feeds are represented in the sample; gray counties are unavailable, not zero.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="panel">
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<header class="panel__header">
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<div>
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<p class="eyebrow">Sample association by age</p>
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<h2>Observed non-pass rate by vehicle age</h2>
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</div>
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</header>
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<div id="age-risk-chart" class="chart" role="img" aria-label="Published non-pass risk by vehicle-age band"></div>
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<p class="chart-note">Sample aggregates only, without confidence intervals. The pattern is descriptive and not a population estimate or causal effect.</p>
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</article>
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</div>
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<aside class="callout" data-requires-data>
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<span class="callout__icon" aria-hidden="true">i</span>
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<p><strong>What this measures:</strong> sampled returning vehicles' next-episode first-attempt emissions-inspection outcomes in covered feeds. It is not a population estimate, mechanical diagnosis, safety assessment, or legal determination.</p>
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</aside>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section class="view" id="view-cohorts" data-view="cohorts" aria-labelledby="cohorts-heading" hidden>
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<div class="page-shell">
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<header class="page-heading">
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<p class="eyebrow">Private 10,000-vehicle development sample</p>
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<h1 id="cohorts-heading">Sample cohort explorer</h1>
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<p class="lede">Explore supported prior make-and-model cohorts and their observed next-episode first-attempt non-pass rates. These are sample associations—not reliability grades or individual predictions.</p>
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</header>
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<aside class="scope-strip" aria-label="Result scope">
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<strong>Not a ranking of population reliability</strong>
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<span>Rates use rounded, suppressed episode support from sampled vehicles. Cohorts can differ in age, history, period, and coverage.</span>
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</aside>
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<div class="unavailable-state" data-unavailable hidden role="status">
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<div class="unavailable-state__icon" aria-hidden="true">!</div>
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<div><h2>Explorer unavailable</h2><p data-unavailable-message>Approved scorecards could not be validated.</p></div>
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</div>
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<div class="explorer-layout" data-requires-data>
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<aside class="filter-panel" aria-labelledby="filter-heading">
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<div class="filter-panel__heading">
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<h2 id="filter-heading">Find a cohort</h2>
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<button class="text-button" id="reset-filters" type="button">Reset</button>
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</div>
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<form id="explorer-filters">
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<label class="field">
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<span>Make or model</span>
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<input id="cohort-search" type="search" autocomplete="off" placeholder="Search supported cohorts">
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</label>
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<p class="filter-panel__note"><strong>Published grain:</strong> prior make and model only. County, age, fuel, program, and period slices are not available for these scorecards.</p>
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</form>
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</aside>
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<div class="explorer-results">
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<div class="result-toolbar">
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<p id="result-summary" aria-live="polite">Loading supported cohorts…</p>
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<label class="field field--inline">
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<span>Sort</span>
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<select id="result-sort">
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<option value="support">Largest support</option>
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<option value="risk-desc">Highest observed sample rate</option>
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<option value="risk-asc">Lowest observed sample rate</option>
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<option value="name">Make and model</option>
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</select>
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</label>
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</div>
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<article class="panel">
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<header class="panel__header">
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<div><p class="eyebrow">Descriptive sample comparison</p><h2>Observed cohort associations</h2></div>
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</header>
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<div id="cohort-dot-plot" class="chart chart--scorecard" role="img" aria-label="Observed development-sample cohort non-pass rates"></div>
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<p class="chart-note">Ordering is a viewing aid within this sample, not a reliability ranking or population comparison.</p>
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</article>
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<div id="cohort-cards" class="cohort-cards"></div>
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<div class="empty-results" id="empty-results" hidden>
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<h2>No supported cohorts match</h2>
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<p>Try clearing one or more filters. Suppressed cohorts are never included in the browser bundle.</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section class="view" id="view-model" data-view="model" aria-labelledby="model-heading" hidden>
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<div class="page-shell page-shell--narrow">
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<header class="page-heading">
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<p class="eyebrow">Private 10,000-vehicle development sample</p>
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<h1 id="model-heading">Model & benchmark</h1>
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<p class="lede">Calibrated logistic regression is the final development-prototype model for the next-episode first-attempt non-pass target. The boosted tree is retained only as a benchmark.</p>
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</header>
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<aside class="scope-strip" aria-label="Result scope">
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<strong>Development evidence only</strong>
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<span>These 2024 values come from the partition used to fit Platt calibration. They are sample-based calibration checks—not independent final-performance estimates, population estimates, or locked-test results.</span>
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</aside>
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<div class="unavailable-state" data-unavailable hidden role="status">
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<div class="unavailable-state__icon" aria-hidden="true">!</div>
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<div><h2>Model diagnostics unavailable</h2><p data-unavailable-message>The approved diagnostic summary could not be validated.</p></div>
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</div>
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<section class="model-comparison" data-requires-data aria-label="Development model comparison">
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<article class="model-card model-card--final">
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<div class="model-card__topline"><span class="decision-badge decision-badge--final">Final prototype</span><span>2024 calibration-fit check</span></div>
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<h2>Calibrated logistic regression</h2>
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<p>The selected model for the research conclusion and any prototype-level discussion. Platt scaling calibrates its probabilities.</p>
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<dl class="metric-list">
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<div><dt>PR-AUC</dt><dd id="final-ap">—</dd></div>
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<div><dt>ROC-AUC</dt><dd id="final-roc">—</dd></div>
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<div><dt>Brier ↓</dt><dd id="final-brier">—</dd></div>
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</dl>
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</article>
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<article class="model-card">
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<div class="model-card__topline"><span class="decision-badge">Benchmark only</span><span>2024 calibration-fit check</span></div>
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<h2>Calibrated boosted tree</h2>
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<p>Retained for development comparison only. It does not replace the logistic model or define dashboard outputs.</p>
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<dl class="metric-list">
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<div><dt>PR-AUC</dt><dd id="benchmark-ap">—</dd></div>
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<div><dt>ROC-AUC</dt><dd id="benchmark-roc">—</dd></div>
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<div><dt>Brier ↓</dt><dd id="benchmark-brier">—</dd></div>
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</dl>
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</article>
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</section>
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<aside class="callout" data-requires-data>
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<span class="callout__icon" aria-hidden="true">i</span>
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<p><strong>Calibration diagnostic—not a final performance estimate:</strong> Platt scaling was fit on this same 2024 partition. PR-AUC and ROC-AUC summarize discrimination; lower Brier is better for probability error. Opened 2025 holdout metrics are intentionally not displayed here.</p>
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</aside>
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<section class="publication-boundary" aria-labelledby="publication-boundary-heading">
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<div>
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<p class="eyebrow">Finished publication boundary</p>
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<h2 id="publication-boundary-heading">No vehicle-level prediction service</h2>
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<p>This static dashboard serves supported aggregate sample rates and diagnostic summaries only. It contains no vehicle lookup, personal inputs, operational connection, or row-level prediction output.</p>
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</div>
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<ul class="check-list">
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<li>Returning-vehicle next-episode target only</li>
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<li>First attempt; pass versus non-pass</li>
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<li>Final model: calibrated logistic regression</li>
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<li>Boosted tree: benchmark only</li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section class="view" id="view-methods" data-view="methods" aria-labelledby="methods-heading" hidden>
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<div class="page-shell">
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<header class="page-heading">
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<p class="eyebrow">Private 10,000-vehicle development sample</p>
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<h1 id="methods-heading">Data & methods</h1>
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<p class="lede">How episodes, labels, temporal evaluation, coverage limits, and privacy controls shape every published result.</p>
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</header>
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<aside class="scope-strip" aria-label="Result scope">
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<strong>Sample-based, not population-based</strong>
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<span>All displayed rates and diagnostics come from the development sample. County displays communicate feed coverage only.</span>
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</aside>
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<div class="unavailable-state" data-unavailable hidden role="status">
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<div class="unavailable-state__icon" aria-hidden="true">!</div>
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<div><h2>Live diagnostics unavailable</h2><p data-unavailable-message>Static methodology remains below; no performance values are being shown.</p></div>
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</div>
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<section class="method-grid" aria-label="Core definitions">
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<article class="method-card">
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<span class="method-card__number">01</span>
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<h2>Prediction unit</h2>
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<p>The first attempt of the next inspection episode. Attempts no more than 30 days apart form one episode.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="method-card">
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<span class="method-card__number">02</span>
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<h2>Binary target</h2>
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<p>Pass versus non-pass. Non-pass combines fail, reject, and abort; blanks and unrecognized outcomes are not labels.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="method-card">
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<span class="method-card__number">03</span>
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<h2>Point-in-time features</h2>
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<p>Every history window ends before the target episode. Current-test results, diagnostics, stations, and later attempts are excluded.</p>
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</article>
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</section>
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<section class="panel" data-requires-data>
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<header class="panel__header"><div><p class="eyebrow">Availability by source era</p><h2>Coverage timeline</h2></div></header>
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<div id="coverage-heatmap" class="heatmap" role="img" aria-label="Inspection source availability by year"></div>
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<p class="chart-note">The <code>slc</code> and <code>slco</code> labels are source eras for Salt Lake County, not separate physical counties.</p>
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</section>
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<section class="split-section" aria-labelledby="split-heading">
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<div class="split-section__copy">
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<p class="eyebrow">No random row split</p>
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<h2 id="split-heading">Chronological evaluation</h2>
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<p>Historical events establish prior context. The 2025 development-sample holdout was evaluated once after model choices were frozen, so it is no longer a pristine final test. A later complete-data run is confirmatory; the partial 2026 feed is monitoring only.</p>
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</div>
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<ol class="timeline">
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<li><span>2010–15</span><strong>Context</strong><small>History only</small></li>
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<li><span>2016–22</span><strong>Train</strong><small>Fit preprocessing + model</small></li>
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<li><span>2023</span><strong>Tune</strong><small>Select regularization</small></li>
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<li><span>2024</span><strong>Calibrate</strong><small>Scale probabilities</small></li>
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<li class="timeline__holdout"><span>2025</span><strong>One-time holdout</strong><small>Already evaluated</small></li>
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<li><span>2026</span><strong>Shadow</strong><small>Partial-period drift</small></li>
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</ol>
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</section>
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<div class="dashboard-grid" data-requires-data>
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<article class="panel">
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<header class="panel__header"><div><p class="eyebrow">Model governance</p><h2>Evidence status</h2></div></header>
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<ul class="limitation-list">
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<li>Calibrated logistic regression is the declared final prototype model.</li>
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<li>The boosted tree remains a benchmark only.</li>
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<li>Published diagnostics cover train, tune, and calibration partitions.</li>
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<li>No locked-test result or population performance claim is published.</li>
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</ul>
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</article>
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<article class="panel">
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<header class="panel__header"><div><p class="eyebrow">Interpret with care</p><h2>Known limitations</h2></div></header>
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<ul class="limitation-list" id="manifest-limitations">
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<li>Participating inspection feeds do not cover all 29 counties.</li>
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<li>Feed and program changes can resemble real-world trends.</li>
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<li>The 10,000-vehicle draw retained 9,996 vehicles; page sampling can over-represent vehicles with more inspection records.</li>
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<li>Reject and abort can reflect process or readiness issues.</li>
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<li>Association is not causation or a mechanical diagnosis.</li>
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</ul>
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</article>
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</div>
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<section class="privacy-panel">
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<div><p class="eyebrow">Publication boundary</p><h2>Only approved aggregates reach this site</h2></div>
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<div class="privacy-flow" aria-label="Private-to-public data flow">
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<span class="privacy-flow__private">Private source<br><small>Read-only local pipeline</small></span>
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<span aria-hidden="true">→</span>
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<span>Suppression<br><small>Minimum support + complements</small></span>
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<span aria-hidden="true">→</span>
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<span class="privacy-flow__public">Public assets<br><small>Suppressed summaries only</small></span>
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</div>
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<p>VINs, plates, ZIPs, stations, technician identifiers, private vehicle tokens, raw source JSON, credentials, operational records, and row-level predictions are outside this site and its public data contract.</p>
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</section>
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||
</div>
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</section>
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||
</main>
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<footer class="site-footer">
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<div class="page-shell site-footer__inner">
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<div><strong>Utah Vehicle Health</strong><p>Private 10,000-vehicle development sample.</p></div>
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<p>Sample-based research only—not a population estimate, diagnosis, certification, safety assessment, or guarantee of an inspection outcome.</p>
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||
</div>
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||
</footer>
|
||
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||
<div id="route-announcer" class="sr-only" aria-live="polite"></div>
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<noscript><div class="noscript">JavaScript is required to validate and display the approved aggregate data files. No estimates are shown without validation.</div></noscript>
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||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|