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+ Published support
+ —
+ Rounded total; suppressed cells omitted
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+ Pass rate
+ —
+ Recognized first-attempt outcomes
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+ Non-pass rate
+ —
+ Fail + reject + abort
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+ Covered counties
+ —
+ Not statewide coverage
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+ Inspection outcomes over time
+A clearer view of the next inspection
+Explore aggregate first-attempt outcomes for returning vehicles in participating Utah county feeds. Non-pass combines fail, reject, and abort.
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+ Data through
+ Unavailable
+ Waiting for manifest
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+ Dashboard data is unavailable
+The approved aggregate files could not be validated. No estimates are being shown.
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+ Quarterly outcomes
+First-attempt non-pass trend
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+ Non-pass (fail + reject + abort)
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+ Partial periods and source changes are called out when present.
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+ Feed availability
+County coverage
+Teal counties appear in the approved inspection feeds. Gray counties are unavailable, not zero.
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+ Age pattern
+Non-pass risk by vehicle age
+The development bundle does not include confidence intervals; published aggregate rates are shown as points.
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+ Supported aggregate cohorts
+Reliability explorer
+Compare published observed next-episode non-pass rates. Every result is a supported aggregate cohort—not an individual prediction.
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+ Explorer unavailable
Approved scorecards could not be validated.
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+ Published aggregate comparison
Supported cohort scorecard
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+ No supported cohorts match
+Try clearing one or more filters. Suppressed cohorts are never included in the browser bundle.
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+ Cohort estimate · not an individual diagnosis
+Next-test risk estimator
+This planned tool will combine approved, coarsened attributes to return a calibrated next-episode non-pass probability.
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+ Intentionally disabled
+An approved prediction lookup is not available
+The estimator will remain off until a privacy-reviewed, suppressed prediction_lookup is published. The current model diagnostics are not enough to serve individual or row-level estimates.
No VIN, plate, exact address, station, free text, or current-test diagnostic will ever be requested.
+ +
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+ Future approved output
+Designed for calibrated context
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- Calibrated non-pass probability and uncertainty +
- Relevant aggregate baseline +
- High-level factor contributions +
- Support and coverage limitations +
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+ 01
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+ 02
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+ 03
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+ Transparent by design
+Data & methods
+How episodes, labels, temporal evaluation, coverage limits, and privacy controls shape every published result.
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+ Live diagnostics unavailable
Static methodology remains below; no performance values are being shown.
Prediction unit
+The first attempt of the next inspection episode. Attempts no more than 30 days apart form one episode.
+Binary target
+Pass versus non-pass. Non-pass combines fail, reject, and abort; blanks and unrecognized outcomes are not labels.
+Point-in-time features
+Every history window ends before the target episode. Current-test results, diagnostics, stations, and later attempts are excluded.
+Availability by source era
Coverage timeline
The slc and slco labels are source eras for Salt Lake County, not separate physical counties.
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+ No random row split
+Chronological evaluation
+Historical events establish prior context. The 2025 development-sample holdout was evaluated once after model choices were frozen, so it is no longer a pristine final test. A later complete-data run is confirmatory; the partial 2026 feed is monitoring only.
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- 2010–15ContextHistory only +
- 2016–22TrainFit preprocessing + model +
- 2023TuneSelect regularization +
- 2024CalibrateScale probabilities +
- 2025One-time holdoutAlready evaluated +
- 2026ShadowPartial-period drift +
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+ Model diagnostics
Published model diagnostics
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+ PR-AUC—
+ Brier score—
+ Support—
+ Interpret with care
Known limitations
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- Participating inspection feeds do not cover all 29 counties. +
- Feed and program changes can resemble real-world trends. +
- DMV history has a 2021 gap and ends in March 2024. +
- Reject and abort can reflect process or readiness issues. +
- Association is not causation or a mechanical diagnosis. +
Publication boundary
Only approved aggregates reach this site
+ Private source
Read-only local pipeline + + Suppression
Minimum support + complements + + Public assets
Aggregate JSON only +
+ Read-only local pipeline + + Suppression
Minimum support + complements + + Public assets
Aggregate JSON only +
Direct identifiers, private vehicle tokens, plates, ZIPs, stations, raw records, and row-level predictions are outside the public data contract.
+